DTN Closing Cotton            11/05 13:34

   Cotton Fights the Trend 

   Despite its nearly 2-year bearish decline, the cotton market is seemingly 
trying to buck that trend.  

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   Despite its nearly 2-year bearish decline, the cotton market is seemingly 
trying to buck that trend. The handshake agreement with China, the 
rapidly-ending 2025 harvest, possible crop damage in India, and a hefty 
net-short fund position are beginning to encourage a bit more demonstrative 
buying. Some traders are eyeing the 68.00 cent level of the 100-day trend as a 
likely target.

   This Friday, options on the December contract will expire at the close of 
the ICE futures. Their expiration will affect the market's total open interest 
levels. 

   USDA has announced it will release an updated crop report on Nov. 14, even 
if the shutdown continues. On the last WASDE, prior to the shutdown, USDA had 
increased the U.S. 2025 cotton crop to 13.22 million versus the previous 13.21 
million bales.  

   December cotton will enter its delivery on Nov. 21. Thus, all traders, 
except those intending to participate in the notice process, will have to 
liquidate or roll forward in time.

   The U.S. dollar continues to move higher Wednesday. It is drawing 
inspiration from the possibility of no more interest rate cuts this year, as 
well as superior earnings from the stock market companies.

   The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments Wednesday against the Trump tariffs. 
However, because of the Trade Act of 1974, the court will likely rule in the 
administration's favor.

   For Wednesday, December 2025 ended at 65.23 cents, up 3 points, while March 
2026 closed at 66.40 cents, down 2 points. Wednesday's estimated volume was 
62,156 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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