DTN Closing Cotton            01/28 13:36

   Cotton Waffles Lower

   The cotton market traded both sides of its close of Tuesday, before settling 
slightly down. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market traded both sides of its close of Tuesday, before settling 
slightly down. The market eventually ignored the outside markets, which were 
stronger, as the precious metals, energies, and grains were all materially 
higher, with gold being the overarching bullish driver.

   The Federal Reserve announced no movement on U.S. interest rates at its 2 
p.m. EST announcement, although the FMOC sees improving economic strength. The 
Trump administration has been pushing the central bank to lower rates for all 
aspects of the U.S. economy, especially the refinancing of its $37 trillion, 
and growing, debt.

   The U.S. government may be heading for another partial shutdown on Jan. 30. 
The death of another Minnesota person by federal agents this past weekend is 
unifying the Democrats in Congress to halt the funding of the DHS budget. 
However, most funding for Homeland Security, some $29 billion, has already been 
approved.

   March options will expire on Feb. 6, or in about two weeks. Traders will be 
anticipating what amount of Puts and Call may expire "in-the-money".

   Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST, USDA will issue its weekly export sales report. 
The previous two releases both showed marketing-year high sales. Cumulative 
sales have reached 66% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 80% 
for this point in the marketing year.

   Also on Thursday, Q4 GDP, Factory Orders and Durable Goods will be released. 
Expectations call for improvements in all their data points.

   The latest drought information shows the U.S. cotton planted area at 80% 
drought (varying stages) compared to the previous reading of 83% drought. A 
newer update from NOAA will be released this Thursday.

   For Wednesday, March 2026 went out at 63.73 cents, 10 points lower; July was 
67.10 cents, up 9 points; and December 2026 closed at 69.01 cents, unchanged. 
Wednesday's estimated volume was 66,854 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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