DTN Closing Cotton            04/25 13:39

   Cotton Steadies the Keel

   The cotton market traded sideways-to-higher Thursday, in its effort to halt 
its April decline. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market traded sideways-to-higher Thursday, in its effort to halt 
its April decline. Traders initially sloughed off bearish GDP numbers to focus 
on the more positive exports-sales data. Friday the market will see the PCE 
inflation report, along with an update from the CFTC on the speculative funds.  
  

   Real gross domestic product was reported Thursday at 1.6%, less than 
expected. Estimates among traders and economists were calling for a 2.4% 
number. In addition, there was an inflation component, which was higher than 
expected. Some analysts now predict that any interest rate reduction will be 
pushed back to December.

   Friday, the CFTC will update the status of the managed-money funds. Last 
week saw that speculative group had liquidated some 26,000 contracts, reducing 
their net long position to roughly 36,000 contracts. 

   Also Friday, traders will see the PCE (personal consumer expenditures) data. 
Reportedly, this is the most closely watched report by the Fed's policy makers. 
Month-over-month estimates call for 0.3% versus the same last time, while 
year-over-year is expected at 2.6% versus 2.85%. 

   Heading into Friday's trade, July cotton is up 6 points on the week, down 
10.89 points on the month, and is down 1.75 points for the year.

   Thursday, May cotton settled at 79.58 cents, up 0.07 cent, July was 81.08 
cents, up 0.07 cent, and December finished at 77.64 cents, 0.05 cent lower. 
Thursday's estimated volume was 28,217 contracts.  

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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